Monday, September 10, 2012

The Daily Stat: Dips in Youth Populations May Trigger Recessions

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SEPTEMBER 10, 2012
Dips in Youth Populations May Trigger Recessions
More than 70% of major declines in the proportion of 15-to-24-year-olds in the population have been associated with declines in GDP growth, according to a study of worldwide data from 1960 through 2005 by Diane J. Macunovich of the University of Redlands in California. A boom in the population of young people seems to boost producers' expectations, and the passing of the bubble causes defaults and bankruptcies, which prompt foreign investors to withdraw funds and speculators to unload the local currency. This appears to have been the pattern in four financial crises since 1980, as well as Japan's "lost decade," Macunovich says.
Source: The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns
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