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July 07, 2014 Why You're Having Trouble Predicting World Cup Outomes Soccer aficionados—journalists, fans, and coaches—have been shown to be no more successful at predicting FIFA World Cup outcomes than people with no knowledge of the game, although they're much more confident of their predictions, say Nikola Erceg and Zvonimir Galić of the University of Zagreb in Croatia. In one study, aficionados and those with no knowledge were only as accurate about match outcomes as if they had guessed randomly. SOURCE: Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches

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